Northern Plains Weather Nov. 23–26: Snow Possible Despite El Niño

Northern Plains — Light snow could accompany Thanksgiving-week cold across parts of the Northern Plains, according to the Farmers’ Almanac, even as El Niño favors a warmer November pattern.

The publication’s Oct. 19 update covers Monday, Nov. 23, through Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2026. It calls for cold late-November weather across its North Central zone, which includes North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Montana.

The Almanac specifically identifies the northern Plains as an area where light snow is possible. Its holiday projection points to regional travel concerns without predicting a major nationwide storm.

The forecast provides no accumulation estimates or city-specific timing. It also does not establish that snow will fall across every community in the Dakotas.

November already falls within the region’s snow season. Bismarck averages 8 inches of snowfall during the month, according to National Weather Service climate normals for 1991–2020. Its normal temperatures for Nov. 26 are a high of 36 degrees and a low of 15 degrees. Those figures describe historical conditions, not the forecast for Thanksgiving 2026.

That climate context matters: temperatures above late-November averages can still be cold enough for wintry weather.

NOAA’s Oct. 15 November outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the northern Plains, with below-normal precipitation favored in parts of the region. However, the agency gives Montana and North Dakota weaker probabilities for warmth because weather disturbances could introduce cooler spells.

NOAA identifies El Niño as the dominant climate influence, while allowing for shorter fluctuations. A warmer monthly average can still include cold days and snow; below-normal precipitation does not mean no precipitation.

Travelers heading through Bismarck, Fargo or Sioux Falls should check local National Weather Service forecasts closer to departure. NOAA says snowfall generally cannot be predicted reliably more than a week ahead, so the Almanac’s holiday outlook remains an early projection rather than a confirmed travel forecast.