Weather
Upper Midwest Halloween 2026: Minnesota–Wisconsin Rain Risk Grows for Oct. 25–31
Minneapolis, MN – Halloween week could bring an unusually mild stretch of weather across the Upper Midwest, but a developing precipitation pattern may complicate outdoor plans in parts of the region.
By Grant Holloway · 2026-10-18T08:22:25.659Z
Minneapolis, MN – Halloween week could bring an unusually mild stretch of weather across the Upper Midwest, but a developing precipitation pattern may complicate outdoor plans in parts of the region. Families across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and the Dakotas are watching whether Saturday, Oct. 31, will bring comfortable trick or treating temperatures or the need for rain gear.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, its 8 14 day outlook issued Saturday, Oct. 17, favors above normal temperatures across much of the Upper Midwest from Sunday, Oct. 25, through Saturday, Oct. 31.
The region is positioned within a broad area of expected warmth stretching from the Rockies through the Great Lakes and eastern United States.
Could Halloween be warmer than usual?
For families in Minneapolis, St. Paul, Madison, Milwaukee, Des Moines and Sioux Falls, the outlook suggests a greater likelihood of above normal temperatures during Halloween week.
Some of the strongest warm signals cover Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa, potentially reducing the likelihood of unusually cold daytime conditions.
However, even warmer than normal late October weather can produce chilly evenings, particularly across Minnesota and the Dakotas. Children may still need jackets or additional layers after sunset.
Where could rain become a concern?
NOAA's precipitation outlook shows a developing contrast across the Upper Midwest.
Portions of the Dakotas and western Iowa are closer to areas favoring above normal precipitation, while Minnesota and Wisconsin show a more mixed pattern.
This raises the possibility of wetter weather in some locations during Halloween week, although a widespread Halloween rainout is not currently established.
The outlook covers the entire Oct. 25 31 period and cannot determine whether rain will fall during Saturday evening's trick or treating hours.
For now, the strongest regional signal is unusual warmth, with precipitation remaining the bigger uncertainty.
Families should monitor updated forecasts as Halloween approaches for more specific information about evening temperatures, rainfall and possible wind conditions.