Western New York Weather This Week: Rain Builds by Tuesday, Cold Pattern Ahead

Sunshine dominates through Monday before a chilly, rain-filled system builds Tuesday across Western New York.

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Buffalo, NY – The morning air feels still and damp across the Lake Erie shoreline, a calm before the next round of unsettled weather. Low clouds stretch across Western New York, with temperatures holding in the lower 40s — mild for late November but deceptive in its calm.

According to the National Weather Service in Buffalo, residents will enjoy a bright, mostly sunny weekend with highs in the mid-40s through Monday. Sunday may bring a brief chance of showers, but Monday remains clear and mild — ideal for outdoor errands, yard work, or early Thanksgiving travel across I-90 and Route 219.

Conditions turn more active Tuesday as a developing front pushes moisture into the region. Expect widespread rain and gusty winds by afternoon, lasting into midweek. Temperatures will hover near 50°F before colder air slides in behind the front late Wednesday. As that air deepens, models hint at a “winter tease” — the first chance of light snow showers across higher elevations or lake-effect zones by Thanksgiving morning.

Across the U.S., a major cold front will sweep east through Thanksgiving week, bringing possible heavy snow to portions of the Midwest and Appalachians between November 25 and December 3.

Five-Day Outlook (Buffalo, NY):

  • Today: Mostly sunny, high 44°F.
  • Sunday: Chance of showers, high 46°F.
  • Monday: Sunny, high 47°F.
  • Tuesday: Rain likely, high 52°F.
  • Wednesday: Showers tapering, high 53°F.