Houston, TX – Repeated rounds of heavy rain could push rivers and bayous toward flood stage along the Texas–Louisiana border beginning March 7, raising concerns for low-lying communities before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook issued February 27 and valid March 7-13, a broad swath of 60-70% probability for above normal precipitation stretches across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A high risk, greater than 60%, for heavy precipitation from March 7-10 places East Texas and western Louisiana near the core of the flood corridor.
Forecast guidance indicates weekly rainfall totals could exceed 3 inches across much of the region, with localized amounts potentially reaching 4 to 5 inches. Three-day totals in the highest-risk areas could surpass 2 inches, increasing the likelihood of flash flooding, particularly in urban and low-lying areas.
In Texas, Houston, Beaumont and communities along the Trinity and Sabine rivers could see rapid water rises. In Louisiana, Lake Charles and parishes near the Calcasieu and Sabine rivers may face increasing flood concerns as repeated rain bands move inland from the Gulf.
Major corridors including I-10, I-45 and U.S. 59 could experience water-covered stretches during heavier downpours. Saturated soils may intensify runoff, especially in bayou-prone neighborhoods and rural parishes.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 7-13 shows a 60-70% probability of above normal temperatures across the region, which could enhance instability and maintain the active storm pattern.
Flooding could remain possible through March 13, with additional river advisories and warnings likely if rainfall totals trend toward the higher end of projections.
