St. Louis, MO – Repeated rounds of heavy rain could push major rivers toward flood stage across the Missouri–Illinois–Kentucky tri-state region beginning March 7, raising concerns for low-lying communities before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook issued February 27 and valid March 7-13, a broad swath of 60-70% probability for above normal precipitation stretches across the South-Central and East-Central U.S. A high risk, greater than 60%, for heavy precipitation from March 7-10 is centered on the Lower Ohio, Tennessee and Middle Mississippi Valleys, placing southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky in a prime flood corridor.
Forecast guidance indicates weekly rainfall totals could exceed 3 inches across much of the region, with localized amounts approaching 4 to 5 inches. Three-day rainfall totals in the highest-risk zone could surpass 2 inches, increasing the likelihood of flash flooding and rapid river rises.
In Missouri, Cape Girardeau and communities along the Mississippi and Meramec rivers could see rising water levels. In Illinois, Carbondale and areas near the Big Muddy River may face flooding concerns. In Kentucky, Paducah and Louisville sit near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers, where elevated runoff could compound downstream impacts.
Major routes including I-55, I-64 and I-24 could experience water-covered stretches during heavier downpours. Saturated soils may intensify runoff into smaller tributaries.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 7-13 shows a 70-80% probability of above normal temperatures across much of the region, which could sustain the active pattern and enhance runoff.
Flooding could remain possible through March 13, with additional river advisories and warnings likely if rainfall totals trend toward the higher end of projections.
