Memphis, TN – Repeated rounds of heavy rain could push rivers toward flood stage along the Tennessee–Mississippi corridor beginning March 7, raising concerns for low-lying communities before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook issued February 27 and valid March 7-13, a broad swath of 60-70% probability for above normal precipitation stretches across the South-Central and East-Central U.S. A high risk, greater than 60%, for heavy precipitation is centered on the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys from March 7-10, placing western Tennessee and northern Mississippi in a prime flood corridor.
Forecast guidance indicates weekly rainfall totals could exceed 3 inches in parts of the region, with localized amounts approaching 4 inches. Three-day totals in the highest-risk areas could surpass 2 inches, increasing the likelihood of flash flooding and rapid rises along creeks and rivers.
In Tennessee, Memphis and areas along the Wolf and Hatchie rivers could see elevated water levels. In Mississippi, Jackson, Southaven and communities near the Pearl and Yazoo rivers may face growing flood concerns as repeated rain bands track north.
Major corridors including I-55, I-40 and U.S. 61 could experience water-covered stretches during heavier downpours. Saturated soils may intensify runoff, especially in Delta communities and low-lying farmland.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 7-13 shows a 70-80% probability of above normal temperatures across much of the region, which could help fuel the active pattern.
Flooding could remain possible through March 13, with additional river advisories and warnings likely if rainfall totals trend toward the higher end of projections.
