Evansville, IN – Flooding is possible across the Ohio Valley beginning March 7 as repeated rounds of heavy rain target southern Indiana and western Kentucky before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook issued February 27 and valid March 7-13, a broad swath of 60-70% probability for above normal precipitation stretches across the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A high risk, greater than 60%, for heavy precipitation from March 7-10 places the Indiana–Kentucky corridor in a zone favorable for excessive rainfall.
Forecast guidance indicates weekly rainfall totals could exceed 3 inches across parts of the region, with localized amounts approaching 4 to 5 inches. Three-day rainfall totals in the highest-risk areas could surpass 2 inches, increasing the likelihood of flash flooding and sharp rises along the Ohio River and its tributaries.
In Indiana, Evansville and communities along the Wabash and White rivers could see elevated water levels. In Kentucky, Louisville and Owensboro sit along the Ohio River, where upstream runoff may compound local rainfall impacts.
Major corridors including I-64, I-69 and the Western Kentucky Parkway could experience water-covered stretches during heavier downpours. Saturated soils may intensify runoff into smaller creeks and low-lying farmland.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 7-13 shows a 70-80% probability of above normal temperatures across much of the Ohio Valley, which could enhance runoff efficiency.
Flooding is possible through March 13, with additional river advisories and warnings likely if rainfall totals trend toward the higher end of projections.
