New Orleans, LA – Rising river levels and water-covered highways could become a growing concern across Louisiana as unseasonable warmth combines with a corridor of heavier rain before St. Patrick’s Day celebrations begin.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is a 70-80% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from the Midwest through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Gulf Coast. Louisiana sits firmly inside that high-confidence zone, signaling highs that could run well above early March averages statewide.
In New Orleans, where typical early March highs reach the upper 60s, afternoon readings could climb noticeably higher. Baton Rouge and Lafayette are also expected to see warmer afternoons and milder overnight lows, increasing humidity and giving the region an early taste of late spring.
The precipitation outlook raises a significant concern for the state. NOAA highlights a corridor of well above normal precipitation stretching from East Texas through Louisiana into Mississippi and western Tennessee. That places central and southern Louisiana near the axis of repeated rain events during the March 6-12 window.
The combination of elevated temperatures and steady rainfall could push water levels higher along the Mississippi, Atchafalaya and Red rivers. Urban flooding and ponding are possible along major corridors including I-10, I-12 and I-20 during heavier downpours, particularly in low-lying parishes.
Residents should monitor local river forecasts and avoid driving through water-covered roads. This warm, wet pattern is expected to persist through March 12, with additional updates likely as confidence increases heading deeper into early March.
