Little Rock, AR – Rising river levels and water-covered highways could become a concern across Arkansas as unseasonable warmth combines with a corridor of heavier rain before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is a 70-80% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from the Midwest southward to the Gulf Coast. Arkansas sits firmly inside that high-confidence zone, signaling highs that could run well above early March averages statewide.
In Little Rock, where typical early March highs hover in the low 60s, afternoon readings could climb noticeably higher. Fayetteville and Fort Smith are also expected to see warmer afternoons and milder overnight lows, limiting any late-season chill and increasing humidity levels as the warmer air mass settles in.
The precipitation outlook raises a larger concern for the Natural State. NOAA highlights a corridor of well above normal precipitation stretching from East Texas and Louisiana through Arkansas into western Tennessee and southern Missouri. That places central and southern Arkansas closer to repeated rain events during the March 6-12 window.
The combination of elevated temperatures and steady rainfall could push water levels higher along the Arkansas, White and Ouachita rivers. Urban flooding and ponding are possible along major corridors including I-30, I-40 and I-49 during heavier downpours.
Residents should monitor local river forecasts and avoid driving through water-covered roads. This warm, wet pattern is expected to persist through March 12, with additional updates likely as confidence increases heading deeper into early March.
