Evansville, IN – Flooding is possible across the Illinois–Indiana–Kentucky tri-state region beginning March 7 as repeated rounds of heavy rain target the Ohio Valley before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook issued February 27 and valid March 7-13, a broad swath of 60-70% probability for above normal precipitation stretches across the South-Central and East-Central U.S. A high risk, greater than 60%, for heavy precipitation from March 7-10 is centered on the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, placing southern Illinois, southern Indiana and western Kentucky in a corridor favorable for excessive rainfall.
Forecast guidance indicates weekly rainfall totals could exceed 3 inches in parts of the region, with localized amounts approaching 4 to 5 inches. Three-day rainfall totals in the highest-risk areas could surpass 2 inches, increasing the likelihood of flash flooding and sharp rises along area rivers.
In Illinois, communities near Carbondale and along the Big Muddy River could see elevated water levels. In Indiana, Evansville and areas along the Wabash and Ohio rivers may face rising water. In Kentucky, Louisville and Owensboro sit along the Ohio River, where runoff from upstream states could compound impacts.
Major corridors including I-64, I-69 and I-24 could experience water-covered stretches during heavier downpours. Saturated soils may intensify runoff into smaller creeks and tributaries.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 7-13 shows a 70-80% probability of above normal temperatures across much of the region, which could enhance runoff and maintain the active pattern.
Flooding is possible through March 13, with additional river advisories and warnings likely if rainfall totals trend toward the higher end of projections.
