Tallahassee, Florida – Tropical Depression Two continues to inch northwest across the Gulf of Mexico, bringing an increasing threat of heavy rainfall, dangerous surf and tropical storm conditions to Florida’s Panhandle and Big Bend. While the system has strengthened only slightly over the past 24 hours, residents and visitors should prepare for deteriorating weather through Tuesday and additional impacts into midweek.
According to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee and the National Hurricane Center, persistent northerly wind shear and dry air have limited the system’s organization, reducing the likelihood of significant strengthening in the short term. Even so, Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect for the immediate Florida Panhandle coast and nearshore Gulf waters, while Tropical Storm Warnings continue for offshore waters through Wednesday morning. Officials caution that additional changes to watches and warnings remain possible as the storm slowly tracks northwest.
The greatest concern for inland areas will be heavy rainfall capable of producing isolated flash flooding. A Level 1 of 4 Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall remains in place across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend and portions of extreme southern Georgia and Alabama through Tuesday. Most communities are expected to receive 2 to 3 inches of rain, though isolated locations could see 4 to 6 inches, particularly where bands of thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same area. Flooding of low-lying roads and poor drainage areas will be possible.
Along the coast, conditions will become increasingly dangerous beginning Tuesday and continuing through Thursday. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for Panhandle beaches, where surf is expected to build to 4 to 9 feet by the middle of the week. Those conditions will create numerous dangerous rip currents and could lead to localized beach erosion. The National Weather Service strongly urges residents and visitors to stay out of the Gulf during periods of high surf and to follow local beach flag warning systems.
Coastal communities including Panama City Beach, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, St. Andrews State Park, Seaside, Apalachicola and surrounding beaches should expect rough surf, gusty showers and hazardous marine conditions. Forecasts also call for occasional wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph within stronger rain bands, especially near the coast.
Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving through flooded roadways and postpone boating or swimming until conditions improve. Continue monitoring updates from the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center, as additional advisories, watches or warnings may be issued if Tropical Depression Two strengthens or shifts its track over the coming days.
