Milwaukee, WI – Rapid snowmelt and rising river levels could become a concern across Wisconsin as a surge of springlike warmth builds from the Midwest south to the Gulf Coast before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is a 70-80% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from the Upper Midwest through the Mississippi Valley and into the Deep South. Wisconsin sits firmly inside that high-confidence zone, signaling highs that could run well above early March averages statewide.
In Milwaukee, where typical early March highs hover in the upper 30s, afternoon readings could climb significantly higher. Madison and Kenosha are also expected to see milder afternoons and warmer overnight lows, limiting refreezing but accelerating the thaw of existing snowpack across southern counties.
Green Bay and Eau Claire may see the most noticeable impact as accumulated snow begins to melt more quickly, feeding runoff into area rivers. The Fox, Wisconsin and Chippewa rivers could see rising levels if repeated rain events develop alongside the warmer air mass.
While temperatures trend above normal, an active storm track east of the Rockies may bring periods of rain. Northern Illinois and areas surrounding the Great Lakes have higher probabilities of above normal precipitation, placing southeastern Wisconsin closer to a wetter pattern during the March 6-12 window.
Drivers should watch for ponding on I-94, I-43 and I-41 during heavier showers. Residents in flood-prone areas should monitor local river forecasts as this warm stretch continues through March 12, with additional updates expected as the window narrows.
