St. Cloud, Minnesota – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring near-normal winter precipitation across western and central Minnesota, with equal chances of rain and snow rather than a dominant snowfall signal.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), western and central Minnesota are currently classified in an “equal chances” category for February precipitation type. This indicates no statistically significant signal favoring either above-normal snowfall or reduced winter precipitation compared to long-term February averages.
Equal chances outlooks reflect uncertainty in storm tracks and temperature patterns. For west and central Minnesota, this suggests February 2026 could feature a mix of snow events, lighter systems, and occasional mixed-precipitation periods depending on timing and air-mass strength.
Colder intrusions may still support accumulating snow, particularly during stronger Plains-origin systems. However, milder periods could lead to lighter snowfall or mixed precipitation, especially in southern and western portions of the region where temperature variability tends to be greater.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across much of Minnesota outside the colder eastern corridor. This temperature profile supports fluctuating winter conditions rather than persistent extreme cold, increasing uncertainty in precipitation type from storm to storm.
Eastern Minnesota and parts of the Upper Midwest show stronger snowfall signals, while regions farther south trend toward mixed precipitation, reinforcing the transition-zone nature of west and central Minnesota this winter.
Commuters, agricultural operators, students, and freight carriers across western and central Minnesota are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when shorter-range outlooks will better clarify storm timing, snowfall potential, and travel impacts.
