Minneapolis, Minnesota – Southern Minnesota is expected to transition into a warmer and more active summer weather pattern between July 23 and July 27, with above-normal temperatures combining with increasing Gulf moisture to fuel repeated chances for showers and thunderstorms. While the period will feature building heat and humidity, several rounds of storms could bring locally heavy rainfall, lightning and occasional travel disruptions.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, in its 6-10 Day Outlook issued July 17, southern Minnesota is favored to experience above-normal temperatures during the July 23-27 period. The region is also included in an area favoring above-normal precipitation, indicating a greater likelihood of widespread rainfall and thunderstorm activity than is typical for late July.
In Minneapolis, temperatures are expected to climb above seasonal averages as southerly winds transport warm, humid air into the Upper Midwest. Heat index values may climb well above the actual air temperature during the afternoon before scattered to numerous thunderstorms develop. Some storms could produce torrential downpours, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and localized flooding in areas where storms repeatedly move across the same locations. Heavy rain may also create brief travel delays along Interstates 35W, 94 and 494 during stronger storms.
Farther south, Rochester is expected to experience a similar weather pattern, with hot and increasingly humid afternoons followed by daily opportunities for thunderstorms. While not every location will receive rainfall each day, storms that develop may produce gusty winds, heavy rain and reduced visibility for motorists. Outdoor events, construction projects and agricultural operations could face periodic interruptions as storms pass through.
The active pattern is expected to extend across southern Minnesota, including Mankato, Albert Lea, Owatonna, Faribault, Winona, Red Wing, New Ulm and the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Agricultural regions may benefit from additional moisture, although repeated downpours could leave standing water in fields and low-lying areas.
Although the Climate Prediction Center outlook does not pinpoint the exact timing or location of individual thunderstorms, confidence continues to increase that southern Minnesota will remain in a warmer-than-normal and wetter-than-normal pattern through July 27. Residents should stay hydrated during periods of afternoon heat, monitor the sky for rapidly developing storms, and keep up with National Weather Service forecasts for any severe thunderstorm or localized flood advisories as the pattern unfolds.
