Fargo, North Dakota – The Dakotas are expected to shift into a hotter and more active weather pattern between July 23 and July 27, with above-normal temperatures combining with increasing Gulf moisture to fuel repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across both North Dakota and South Dakota. While the warmer temperatures will become more noticeable during the afternoon, multiple storm systems could bring locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and isolated strong thunderstorms.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, in its 6-10 Day Outlook issued July 17, both North Dakota and South Dakota are favored to experience above-normal temperatures during the July 23-27 period. The region is also included in an area favoring above-normal precipitation, signaling an increased likelihood of more widespread rainfall and thunderstorm activity than is typical for late July.
In Fargo, temperatures are expected to climb above seasonal averages as warm southerly winds strengthen across the northern Plains. Heat and humidity will increase through the period, creating favorable conditions for afternoon and nighttime thunderstorms. Some storms could produce torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, hail and strong wind gusts, with localized flooding possible where storms repeatedly move over the same areas.
Farther south, Sioux Falls is expected to experience similar conditions, with above-average temperatures and multiple opportunities for thunderstorms throughout the five-day period. While not every community will receive rainfall each day, stronger storms may bring heavy downpours capable of reducing visibility on Interstates 29 and 90, along with localized flooding in low-lying areas and poor drainage locations.
The active pattern is expected to extend across both Dakotas, including Bismarck, Grand Forks, Minot, Rapid City, Pierre, Aberdeen, Watertown and surrounding agricultural communities. The added rainfall may provide beneficial moisture for crops, but repeated heavy thunderstorms could temporarily delay field work and create isolated flash flooding concerns.
Although the Climate Prediction Center outlook does not pinpoint the exact timing or location of individual storm systems, confidence continues to increase that the Dakotas will remain in a warmer-than-normal and wetter-than-normal pattern through July 27. Residents should prepare for periods of summer heat followed by scattered to numerous thunderstorms, and continue monitoring National Weather Service forecasts for updated severe weather watches, warnings and localized flood advisories.
