Duluth, Minnesota – Residents across northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin should remain weather-aware through the next several days as a conditional severe weather pattern could quickly produce dangerous thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall. While storms are not guaranteed to develop everywhere, forecasters say any storm that does form could become severe with little warning.
According to the National Weather Service in Duluth, a warm front moving north across Minnesota will bring increasing instability today and tonight. Forecast confidence is high that the atmosphere will be favorable for severe weather, but exactly where storms develop depends on whether a strong “cap” of warm air aloft weakens enough to allow thunderstorms to form.
If storms develop Monday afternoon or evening, the primary hazards include hail up to golf ball size, wind gusts reaching 70 mph and torrential rainfall capable of producing localized flash flooding. The National Weather Service says there is also a lower-end potential for hail up to baseball size, wind gusts approaching 80 mph and one or more tornadoes if the strongest storms develop. If storm development is delayed until overnight, damaging wind gusts, hail up to ping pong ball size and heavy rainfall would become the primary concerns.
The greatest opportunity for thunderstorms Monday appears during the late afternoon and evening across much of the Northland, including Duluth, the Iron Range, Brainerd Lakes, the I-35 corridor, the Twin Ports, the North Shore and northwest Wisconsin. Thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday and Wednesday, with the severe weather focus shifting farther east into northwest Wisconsin. Heavy rain, damaging winds, large hail and a small tornado risk remain possible if storms organize.
Because the setup is highly dependent on subtle atmospheric changes, forecast details may shift even a few hours before storms develop. The National Weather Service encourages residents to monitor forecast updates throughout the day, enable wireless emergency alerts and have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially if outdoor plans extend into the evening.
No five-day forecast is included because the provided graphics do not display a five-day forecast panel.
