Kansas City, Missouri – Missouri is expected to remain in an active midsummer weather pattern between July 23 and July 27, with above-normal temperatures combining with increasing humidity to produce hot afternoons and frequent opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. The weather pattern favors multiple rounds of rainfall across the state, with some storms capable of producing heavy downpours, gusty winds and localized flooding.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, in its 6-10 Day Outlook issued July 17, Missouri is favored to experience above-normal temperatures during the July 23-27 period. The state is also included in an area favoring above-normal precipitation, signaling an increased likelihood of more widespread rainfall and thunderstorm activity than is typical for late July.
In Kansas City, afternoon temperatures are expected to climb above seasonal averages before daytime heating and abundant moisture fuel scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Heat index values will likely exceed the actual air temperature, making conditions feel more oppressive before storms develop later in the day. Some thunderstorms may produce torrential rainfall in a short period of time, resulting in localized flooding on low-lying roads and areas with poor drainage.
Across eastern Missouri, St. Louis is expected to experience a similar pattern, with hot and humid mornings followed by increasing thunderstorm chances during the afternoon and evening. Repeated rounds of storms could create localized travel delays on major roadways, including Interstates 64, 70 and 44, where heavy rain may briefly reduce visibility. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and isolated strong wind gusts will also accompany the stronger storms.
The hotter and wetter weather pattern is expected to extend statewide, including Springfield, Columbia, Jefferson City, Joplin, Cape Girardeau, St. Joseph and the Lake of the Ozarks region. While rainfall will not be continuous, many communities are likely to receive multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms during the five-day period, with localized rainfall totals varying considerably depending on storm placement.
Although the Climate Prediction Center outlook does not pinpoint the exact timing or location of individual thunderstorms, confidence continues to increase that Missouri will remain in a warmer-than-normal and wetter-than-normal pattern through July 27. Residents should stay hydrated during the afternoon heat, remain alert for rapidly developing thunderstorms, and monitor National Weather Service forecasts for localized flood advisories and severe thunderstorm warnings.
