Little Rock, Arkansas – Arkansas is expected to remain locked in an active midsummer weather pattern between July 23 and July 27, with above-normal temperatures combining with abundant Gulf moisture to produce hot, humid afternoons and frequent rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The pattern will increase the risk of localized flooding, dangerous lightning and brief travel disruptions, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, in its 6-10 Day Outlook issued July 17, Arkansas is favored to experience above-normal temperatures throughout the July 23-27 period. The state is also included in an area favoring above-normal precipitation, indicating a greater likelihood of widespread rainfall and more frequent thunderstorm activity than is typical for late July.
In Little Rock, afternoon temperatures are expected to climb above seasonal averages while humidity pushes heat index values into uncomfortable and potentially dangerous levels. As daytime heating intensifies, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop, with some producing torrential downpours capable of overwhelming drainage systems and creating ponding on roads. Frequent lightning and gusty winds will also accompany the strongest storms.
Across northwest Arkansas, Fayetteville is expected to experience similar conditions. Above-average temperatures will dominate the mornings and early afternoons before thunderstorms develop later in the day. Some storms may produce heavy rainfall in a short period of time, leading to localized flooding in low-lying areas and brief reductions in visibility for motorists. Outdoor events, construction projects and recreational activities could face interruptions as storms move through.
The hotter and wetter pattern is expected to extend statewide, including Fort Smith, Jonesboro, Conway, Hot Springs, Pine Bluff, Russellville, Texarkana and Mountain Home. While not every community will receive rain each day, the overall pattern favors repeated opportunities for thunderstorms, with locally heavy rainfall possible where storms repeatedly track over the same locations.
Although the Climate Prediction Center outlook does not pinpoint the exact timing or location of daily thunderstorms, confidence continues to increase that Arkansas will remain in a warmer-than-normal and wetter-than-normal pattern through July 27. Residents should stay hydrated during periods of extreme heat, avoid outdoor activities during the hottest part of the afternoon when possible, and monitor National Weather Service forecasts for localized flood advisories and severe thunderstorm warnings.
