Houston, Texas – Heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain the biggest concern this week along parts of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast as a tropical disturbance drifts toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, even though tropical development remains unlikely in the short term.
According to the National Hurricane Center, an area of low pressure over northeastern Mexico continues to generate disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Forecasters do not expect significant development during the next day or so while the system remains inland, but it could move back over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday.
The National Hurricane Center currently gives the disturbance a 20% chance of tropical development through the next 48 hours and a 30% chance over the next seven days. While those odds remain relatively low, the system is expected to transport deep tropical moisture into portions of eastern and southern Texas as well as Louisiana.
Cities including Houston, Galveston, Corpus Christi, Victoria, Beaumont, Port Arthur, Lake Charles and Lafayette could experience periods of heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flash flooding. Low-lying roads, urban drainage systems and flood-prone neighborhoods may be especially vulnerable during heavier downpours.
Forecasters emphasize that impacts from rainfall can occur regardless of whether a tropical depression or named storm forms. Gusty winds, dangerous lightning and reduced visibility are also possible within stronger thunderstorms.
Residents along the Gulf Coast should monitor updates closely through Wednesday, review flood safety plans and avoid driving through flooded roadways. Additional watches, advisories or flood alerts may be issued as the disturbance approaches the Gulf of Mexico and rainfall coverage increases.
