Pensacola, FL – Rising rivers and water-covered highways could become a concern across the Florida Panhandle as unseasonable warmth combines with a wetter-than-average storm track before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is an 80-90% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from the Northeast through the Southeast and into the Gulf Coast. The Florida Panhandle sits firmly inside that high-confidence zone, signaling highs that could run well above early March averages from Escambia County to Leon County.
In Pensacola, where typical early March highs reach the upper 60s, afternoon readings could climb noticeably higher. Panama City and Destin are also expected to see warmer afternoons and milder overnight lows, increasing humidity along the coast. Tallahassee and inland communities may experience a more summerlike feel as the warm pattern settles in.
The precipitation outlook reinforces an active Gulf-influenced pattern. NOAA favors above normal rainfall across portions of the Gulf Coast during the March 6-12 window, with a stronger precipitation signal extending from Louisiana and Mississippi into Alabama and Tennessee. The western Panhandle, including Pensacola and Fort Walton Beach, could see repeated rain events.
The combination of elevated temperatures and steady rainfall could push water levels higher along the Escambia, Choctawhatchee and Apalachicola rivers. Urban flooding and ponding are possible along major corridors including I-10 and U.S. 98 during heavier downpours.
This warm, wet pattern is expected to persist through March 12, with additional updates likely as confidence increases heading deeper into early March.
