Floridians could be welcoming 2026 with near-record warmth, as long-range forecasts indicate an unusually mild pattern settling in statewide after Christmas and continuing through the New Year.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 8–14 day temperature outlook for Saturday, December 27 through Friday, January 2 strongly favors above-normal temperatures across Florida, including Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, Miami, and much of the Panhandle.
In Jacksonville, daytime highs during the post-Christmas to New Year’s stretch are expected to run well above late-December averages, with some afternoons potentially approaching daily record levels. While Florida typically experiences milder winters compared to much of the country, temperatures during this period could feel more like early spring than the heart of winter.
Meteorologists say the warmth is being driven by a broad ridge of high pressure dominating the eastern United States, limiting cold fronts from reaching deep into the Southeast and keeping sustained cool air bottled up farther north. As a result, overnight lows may also remain elevated, especially along the coast.
The warm signal may persist beyond New Year’s Day. NOAA’s Week 3–4 outlook for January 3–16, 2026 continues to favor above-average temperatures across much of Florida, particularly across the peninsula. While forecast confidence decreases farther out, current trends suggest a mild start to January rather than a return to typical winter cool downs.
The extended warmth could affect energy demand, tourism, agriculture, and outdoor activities, while also reducing the likelihood of frost or freeze conditions across much of the state. Forecasters caution that brief cold snaps are still possible, but overall signals point toward a warm opening to 2026 for Florida.
