Above-average temperatures are expected to persist across much of the Southwest from August 5–9, while the region remains split between very dry conditions in California and increasing monsoon moisture across Arizona and New Mexico. The result will be a week of intense summer heat, elevated wildfire concerns in parts of the West, and daily thunderstorm chances farther east.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 Day Outlook issued July 30, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico are all favored to experience above-normal temperatures, with the strongest confidence centered across the interior Southwest. The precipitation outlook favors below-normal rainfall across much of California, Nevada, and portions of the northern Great Basin, while above-normal precipitation is expected across southern Arizona and much of New Mexico as monsoon moisture remains active.
Cities including Los Angeles, California, and Albuquerque, New Mexico, are expected to experience very different weather despite sharing above-average warmth. Southern California should remain predominantly dry with elevated fire weather concerns as vegetation continues to dry out, while Albuquerque and much of central and southern New Mexico could see daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, localized flash flooding, and gusty outflow winds.
Phoenix and Tucson may also experience isolated to scattered monsoon storms, while Las Vegas is likely to stay hotter than average with only limited opportunities for rainfall. Across Southern California, residents should continue practicing wildfire safety, while those in Arizona and New Mexico should remain alert for rapidly changing conditions near burn scars, low-water crossings, and desert washes where flooding can develop quickly.
The overall pattern favors continued above-average heat through August 9, with dry conditions dominating the Pacific Coast while monsoon-driven thunderstorms remain focused farther east. Additional outlooks from the National Weather Service will refine daily storm coverage and rainfall potential as the period approaches.
