Columbia, SC – A surge of unseasonable warmth could spread across South Carolina within days, pushing temperatures well above early March averages and increasing the risk of heavy rain before St. Patrick’s Day celebrations begin.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is an 80-90% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from New England through the Carolinas and into the Gulf Coast. South Carolina sits firmly inside that high-confidence zone, signaling highs that could climb significantly above seasonal norms statewide.
In Columbia, where typical early March highs reach the mid-60s, afternoon readings could trend even warmer. Charleston and Myrtle Beach may see elevated humidity along with milder nights, while Greenville and the Upstate experience a noticeable early taste of spring.
The precipitation outlook reinforces an active storm track across the eastern half of the country. NOAA favors above normal rainfall from the Gulf Coast through the Tennessee Valley and up the East Coast during the March 6-12 window. While the heaviest precipitation signals are centered farther west near the Great Lakes and lower Mississippi Valley, South Carolina remains in a corridor supportive of repeated rain events.
The combination of elevated temperatures and steady rainfall could lead to localized flooding in low-lying areas, especially near the Congaree, Pee Dee and Savannah rivers, and along major corridors such as I-26 and I-95. Residents should clear storm drains and avoid driving through water-covered roads during heavier downpours.
This warm, unsettled pattern is expected to persist through March 12, with additional updates likely as confidence increases heading into mid-March.
