Nashville, Tenn. – A warmer-than-normal start to March is expected across Tennessee, with mild air favoring mostly rain from Sunday, March 1, through Thursday, March 5.
According to NOAA’s 6-10 day outlook issued Monday, Tennessee is favored to see above-normal temperatures during the March 1-5 stretch, while precipitation trends near to slightly above seasonal averages across the Tennessee Valley. That warmer pattern sharply reduces the risk for widespread snow, with rain expected to be the dominant precipitation type statewide.
In Middle Tennessee, including Nashville, Murfreesboro and Clarksville, passing rain showers are the most likely outcome as systems track across the region. Periods of steadier rainfall could lead to slick stretches along Interstate 40 and Interstate 24, especially during the morning and evening commute.
West Tennessee, including Memphis and Jackson, should also remain predominantly rainy with little to no wintry concern. In East Tennessee, including Knoxville and Chattanooga, rain will be the primary precipitation type, though higher elevations near the North Carolina border could briefly see a rain-snow mix during overnight hours. Any mixing would be limited and unlikely to accumulate.
Drivers should remain alert for reduced visibility and ponding on roadways during heavier showers, particularly in low-lying or flood-prone areas. With temperatures trending above normal, early March will feel more like early spring across much of the Volunteer State.
Additional refinements are expected later this week as the March 1-5 window approaches.
