Milwaukee, WI — As Wisconsin heads into the final stretch of 2025, forecasters are closely watching an unusual warm pattern that could bring near-record heat to the state between December 27 and January 2, a time of year normally dominated by deep winter cold.
According to the latest outlooks from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Wisconsin sits firmly within a region favored for above-normal temperatures during the critical holiday-to-New Year transition. For Milwaukee and much of southern and central Wisconsin, the probability of warmer-than-average conditions ranges from 60 to 80 percent, signaling a strong confidence in the mild setup.
Historically, Milwaukee’s average highs during late December hover near the low 30s, with overnight lows well below freezing. Current guidance suggests daytime highs could climb into the 40s and possibly low 50s, putting daily temperature records within reach as 2026 begins. Northern Wisconsin would also trend warmer than normal, though still cooler than the southern part of the state.
This pattern is being driven by a persistent ridge of high pressure over the eastern United States, effectively blocking Arctic air from spilling south while allowing milder Pacific and Gulf air to flow into the Upper Midwest. As a result, snow chances may be limited, with rain or mixed precipitation more likely than classic winter storms during the holiday travel period.
Looking beyond New Year’s Day, NOAA’s Week 3–4 outlook for January 3–16, 2026, continues to favor above-normal temperatures across Wisconsin, suggesting the mild trend could extend well into mid-January. While short-lived cold snaps remain possible, sustained winter cold may be delayed.
The warmth could have impacts on energy demand, winter sports, ice conditions, and travel, while also raising concerns about reduced snowpack early in the season. Forecasters caution that changes are still possible, but confidence is growing that Wisconsin will enter 2026 warmer than usual.
