Madison, WI – Will the Badger State see a snow-packed winter or another season of ups and downs? The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary outlook for Winter 2025–26 points to equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across Wisconsin, leaving storm potential wide open.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 report, a weak La Niña is expected this fall before fading to ENSO-neutral conditions by winter. That transition reduces long-term predictability and increases reliance on short-term patterns.
“Predictability is very low right now,” forecasters cautioned, adding that short-term factors such as the Arctic Oscillation and polar vortex disruptions could heavily influence Wisconsin’s snow season.
What It Means for Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s geography makes for sharp winter contrasts:
- Northern Wisconsin (Superior, Rhinelander, Ashland): More likely to see consistent snow and colder-than-average conditions, especially with lake-effect events off Lake Superior.
- Central Wisconsin (Wausau, Stevens Point): Snowfall outcomes hinge on storm tracks, with potential for both frequent snow systems and mid-season thaws.
- Southern Wisconsin (Madison, Milwaukee, Kenosha): Often faces rain–snow mix events, but still vulnerable to big Midwest storm systems that can drop heavy snow if cold air locks in.
Historically, ENSO-neutral winters have delivered both blockbuster blizzards and stretches of mild weather to Wisconsin, underscoring the 50/50 nature of this forecast.
Preparing for the Season
The bottom line: Wisconsin is in a 50/50 snow-risk zone heading into Winter 2025–26. While there’s no guarantee of a snow-heavy season, the risk of major snowstorms and lake-effect events remains very much on the table.
With a warmer-than-average fall underway, meteorologists warn the shift to winter could be abrupt, with December possibly bringing the first impactful storms.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, offering more clarity on what Wisconsin residents should expect this season.
