Helena, MT – Montana may be in for a snowier winter than usual, with the 2025-26 Winter Weather Outlook pointing to an increased risk of heavy snowfall and stronger storms from December through February.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center, weak La Niña conditions are developing this fall and expected to shift to a neutral phase later in the season. Historically, La Niña winters often bring colder-than-average air into the northern Rockies while steering frequent storm systems across Montana. That combination increases the chance of above-average snowfall statewide.
Meteorologists caution that the forecast is preliminary and subject to change. Short-term climate drivers—including the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)—can dramatically alter storm intensity and timing. These patterns often cause the wide swings Montana residents are familiar with: long dry spells followed by heavy, prolonged snow events.
Still, the early signal suggests greater-than-normal snow potential this season. Western Montana, including Missoula and Kalispell, may see significant mountain snow that enhances avalanche risk in higher elevations. Central and southern regions, including Helena, Bozeman, and Billings, are likely to face multiple strong winter systems. Eastern Montana, while typically drier, could still see several impactful snow events when Arctic air collides with moisture-rich storms.
Past winters with similar setups illustrate the potential extremes. Some La Niña seasons brought manageable snowfall totals, while others produced prolonged blizzards, shutting down highways and closing schools for days. This variability underscores the need for readiness, regardless of how the season ultimately plays out.
Travel challenges are a major concern. Interstates including I-90 and I-15, along with U.S. highways such as US-2 and US-93, are vulnerable to closures during blizzard conditions. Strong winds across the plains often combine with fresh snow to create whiteouts, posing hazards for freight haulers and commuters alike.
The official NWS winter forecast will be issued October 16, but officials encourage residents to prepare early. That includes checking heating systems, stocking up on rock salt, winterizing vehicles, and keeping emergency kits ready at home and on the road.
