ORLANDO, Fla. – NOAA’s Winter 2025–2026 outlook, released Thursday, Oct. 16, signals a warm, mostly dry season across the Florida Peninsula — meaning beach weather may linger well into Christmas week. The Climate Prediction Center’s data shows above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation statewide, a pattern strongly associated with La Niña winters.
According to NOAA meteorologists, the subtropical jet stream will stay north of Florida this season, keeping most major storm systems confined to the southern U.S. border states. “We’re expecting fewer cold fronts and extended dry periods across the Peninsula,” forecasters said. That means warmer days, limited rainfall, and fewer opportunities for frost or freezes, especially south of I-4.
The dry pattern could increase brush fire risk by midwinter if humidity levels remain low. Farmers and citrus growers across central and south Florida are advised to monitor soil moisture closely. While the occasional cold snap can still slip through — particularly in North Florida — NOAA expects mild conditions to dominate December through February. Christmas travel looks favorable statewide, with little risk of weather delays from Miami to Jacksonville.
By late February and March 2026, forecasters anticipate rising temperatures and an early onset of springlike humidity. The pattern may also signal an earlier start to next year’s thunderstorm and severe-weather season. NOAA encourages residents to stay water-wise and prepare for potential drought impacts if the dry stretch continues into early summer.
