PHOENIX, Ariz. – NOAA’s Winter 2025–2026 outlook, released Thursday, Oct. 16, points to another warm, mostly dry season across the Desert Southwest — with temperatures running well above normal and precipitation below seasonal averages through early spring. The Climate Prediction Center’s data shows La Niña will once again dominate the pattern, keeping the subtropical jet stream north and storm tracks limited over Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico.
According to NOAA meteorologists, La Niña winters typically bring fewer rain events and little mountain snow to the region. “This year’s outlook strongly favors a continuation of warm, dry conditions,” forecasters said. That means mild days, cool nights, and a slim chance of measurable precipitation through the Christmas season. While higher terrain in northern Arizona and New Mexico could see occasional snow showers, widespread winter weather is unlikely.
The warm trend may intensify by January and February 2026, with extended dry stretches leading to worsening drought conditions and elevated wildfire risk heading into spring. NOAA cautions that the lack of snowpack across the Mogollon Rim and southern Rockies could impact early water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin.
Residents should anticipate minimal weather disruptions to travel along I-10, I-17, and I-40, though dust storms may develop during dry frontal passages. By late March, forecasters expect increasing winds and occasional cool fronts before temperatures climb again into early April.
