Lubbock, TX – Residents of western Texas may see a milder but still unpredictable winter season ahead, as the 2025-26 preliminary outlook points to warmer-than-average temperatures with chances for mixed precipitation between December and February.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center, weak La Niña conditions are developing this fall and are expected to shift toward neutral mid-winter. Historically, La Niña winters in Texas often bring drier, warmer conditions to much of the southern Plains. But forecasters warn that short-term atmospheric patterns can introduce sharp temperature swings and storm surprises.
Meteorologists highlight the role of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which can occasionally pull Arctic air into the southern Plains. These setups sometimes deliver quick but impactful winter storms — bringing snow, sleet, or ice to western Texas.
Still, the early signal leans toward above-normal temperatures overall. Cities like Lubbock, Amarillo, and Midland are likely to see more mild days than average, though forecasters stress that brief cold snaps are still possible. Rainfall trends remain uncertain, with some parts of the Panhandle and West Texas expected to lean drier while others may see stormier periods tied to frontal systems.
Past winters with similar climate patterns demonstrate this variability. Some La Niña years brought extended dry and warm conditions with minimal snow, while others delivered significant ice events that disrupted travel and caused power outages across the region.
Travel impacts remain a concern despite the warmer outlook. Interstate corridors including I-27, I-20, and I-40 are prone to closures during ice and snow events. Even brief storms can lead to dangerous driving conditions across the High Plains, where strong winds often cause drifting snow and whiteouts.
The official winter forecast will be released October 16, but emergency officials encourage western Texans to prepare now. Homeowners should check heating systems, stock up on basic supplies, and ensure pipes are insulated against hard freezes. Motorists are advised to keep emergency kits in vehicles with blankets, food, and water in case of road closures.
