Asheville, NC – Western North Carolina may head into a wetter and occasionally wintry pattern during the Thanksgiving travel window, as new long-range federal outlooks show a 33–40% probability of above-normal precipitation across the region from November 23 through November 29.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 8–14 Day Outlook released Saturday, the Blue Ridge and southern Appalachian region sit within a moderate precipitation-signal zone, paired with marginal temperatures that could support periods of cold rain, mixed precipitation, or wet snow—particularly at higher elevations.
The High Country—including Boone, Blowing Rock, Banner Elk, and areas near Beech Mountain and Sugar Mountain—carries the strongest chance for wintry conditions. Elevation frequently plays a key role in late-November weather, and even modest moisture can produce accumulating wet snow or periods of slush along the peaks and ridges.
The Asheville metro, including Hendersonville, Waynesville, Brevard, and Black Mountain, also sits firmly in the 33–40% above-normal precipitation corridor. While temperatures here will likely remain slightly warmer, brief periods of wintry mix are possible during overnight or early-morning hours if colder air dips through the valleys.
Farther southwest, areas such as Franklin, Sylva, and Murphy should also see above-normal precipitation, though rain is expected to be the dominant type. Still, mountain passes along US-441, US-64, the Blue Ridge Parkway, and I-40 could become slick at times if mixed precipitation develops.
Thanksgiving week historically brings heavy travel across the mountains of Western North Carolina, particularly along I-26, I-40, and the Blue Ridge Parkway. Even light snow or cold rain can create slowdowns through mountain curves and higher-elevation corridors.
Forecasters expect clearer timing and precipitation-type details early next week as short-range models begin resolving individual storm systems.
