Buffalo, New York – A deep surge of Arctic air is poised to return to Western New York beginning Thursday, bringing the risk of subzero wind chills, hazardous travel, and periodic snow through the following Wednesday.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Western New York is expected to fall into a below-normal temperature pattern during the Jan. 15–21 period as cold air funnels south from central Canada. Precipitation is projected to run near normal overall, but the cold setup raises concerns for lake-effect snow and persistent ice on untreated surfaces.
The Buffalo metro area, along with Niagara, Erie, and Genesee counties, faces a heightened risk for overnight wind chills dropping below zero, especially late night through early morning. Prolonged cold may strain heating systems and increase the risk of frozen pipes. Even light snow could quickly create slick conditions on Interstate 90, the Kensington Expressway, and Route 33.
Farther east, Rochester, Batavia, and surrounding areas could see intermittent lake-effect snow bands shift inland, reducing visibility and impacting travel along Interstate 490 and the New York State Thruway. In the higher terrain of Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Chautauqua counties, colder temperatures combined with elevation may worsen road conditions, particularly on secondary and rural routes.
Residents are urged to prepare now by testing heating systems, insulating exposed plumbing, and keeping winter emergency kits in vehicles. Limiting time outdoors during the coldest overnight hours will be critical, especially for vulnerable populations and outdoor workers.
Cold-related advisories and lake-effect snow statements may be issued as the pattern becomes clearer. Additional updates are expected as confidence increases heading into late next week.
