Buffalo, New York – Colder air settling across the Great Lakes ahead of St. Patrick’s Day could turn part of western New York’s active storm track into accumulating snow between March 11 and March 17.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, western New York falls within a 40-50% probability zone for above-normal precipitation during the 8-14 day period. At the same time, temperatures trend near to below normal across the region. That combination increases the likelihood that stronger systems tracking through the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes bring wet snow, especially during overnight and early morning hours.
In Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Batavia, overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s could allow slushy accumulation on grassy surfaces and untreated secondary roads if moderate precipitation develops. Along the I-90 corridor from Dunkirk to Rochester, bursts of heavier precipitation before sunrise may briefly reduce visibility and create slick conditions on bridges and overpasses. Areas closer to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will also need to monitor wind direction, which can influence surface temperatures and precipitation type.
The broader eastern United States is expected to trend wetter than normal, while much of California and the Southwest remain drier, sharpening the national contrast in the pattern.
Drivers across western New York should monitor early morning travel conditions closely. Even minor late-season snowfall can create slippery stretches. Additional updates are expected as the March 11-17 window approaches and confidence in system timing increases.
