Charleston, WV – A surge of unseasonable warmth could spread across West Virginia within days, accelerating snowmelt in the mountains and increasing runoff into creeks and rivers before St. Patrick’s Day arrives.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is an 80-90% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from the Northeast through the Ohio Valley and into the Deep South. West Virginia sits firmly inside that high-confidence zone, signaling highs that could run significantly above early March averages statewide.
In Charleston, where typical early March highs reach the upper 40s, afternoon temperatures could climb well beyond seasonal norms. Huntington, Parkersburg and Morgantown are also expected to see milder afternoons and warmer overnight lows, limiting refreeze concerns but speeding up the thaw of any lingering snowpack in higher elevations.
The precipitation outlook reinforces an active pattern. NOAA favors above normal rainfall across much of the eastern United States during the March 6-12 window, with enhanced precipitation signals near the Great Lakes and parts of the Tennessee Valley. Northern and western West Virginia, including Wheeling and Morgantown, may be closer to the corridor of heavier rainfall potential.
The combination of elevated temperatures and repeated rain events could lead to rising water levels along the Kanawha, Monongahela and Ohio rivers, along with minor flooding in low-lying valleys and along major routes such as I-64, I-79 and I-77. Residents should monitor river forecasts and avoid driving through water-covered roads.
This warm, wet pattern is expected to persist through March 12, with additional updates likely as confidence increases heading into mid-March.
