West Texas Summer Pattern: Above-Normal Heat April 16–20 With 40–50% Increase in Rain Chances

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Midland, Texas – Temperatures will surge into the mid-90s by Thursday afternoon, delivering a summerlike stretch of heat across West Texas while storm chances begin to build heading into the weekend.

According to the National Weather Service and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, West Texas is in a 60 to 70 percent probability zone for above-normal temperatures from April 16 through April 20. A broad heat dome will dominate early, allowing temperatures to climb well above seasonal averages before a shift toward increased precipitation begins.

In Midland-Odessa and across Midland, Ector, and Martin counties, highs are expected to reach 92 to 96°F between 2 p.m. and 7 p.m., with overnight lows holding in the upper 60s. Along the I-20 corridor, dry air and strong daytime heating will initially elevate fire risk in open oilfield and grassland areas.

Farther west, cities including Pecos and Fort Stockton will see similar highs in the mid-90s, while San Angelo to the east may begin to see increasing cloud cover late in the period. Winds may also increase at times, especially across open terrain.

The precipitation outlook shows a 40 to 50 percent chance of above-normal rainfall developing during this period, particularly between April 18 and April 22. Thunderstorm chances will increase across the Permian Basin and into the Big Country, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Residents should stay hydrated during peak heat, avoid outdoor burning early in the period, and remain weather-aware as storm chances increase. Drivers should be prepared for sudden wind shifts and reduced visibility in blowing dust or storms.

The hottest conditions are expected through April 18, followed by a gradual transition toward a more active and storm-prone pattern into early next week. Additional advisories are likely as conditions evolve.

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