Seattle, WA – Washington is heading toward the December 13–26 holiday stretch with a pattern that strongly favors rain, not snow, for most of the state’s population centers, according to new NOAA long-range outlooks. While mountains may still see heavy snowfall, lowland areas — including Seattle, Tacoma, Everett, Olympia, and much of western Washington — are unlikely to see a white Christmas.
NOAA’s latest guidance places Washington in an “Above Normal” precipitation zone for the second half of December. This means plenty of moisture is expected to move in from the Pacific, bringing a steady parade of storm systems — but temperatures will determine whether that falls as rain or snow.
Temperature trends tilt the odds strongly toward rain for the lowlands. Much of western and coastal Washington sits inside a “Leaning Above Normal” temperature pattern. Even modestly warmer-than-average temperatures are enough to keep snow levels elevated, especially when paired with frequent incoming Pacific systems.
According to NOAA meteorologists, this combination of warm air and heavy moisture creates a classic Pacific Northwest setup:
– Rain for the lowlands
– Snow for the Cascades, Olympics, and interior high terrain
Cities east of the Cascades — including Spokane, Yakima, Wenatchee, and the Tri-Cities — have a better chance of seeing colder air. However, even there, the outlook leans warmer than normal, suggesting snow chances are modest but not eliminated. Any snowfall would likely depend on the exact placement of shortwaves crossing the region during the December 18–24 window.
For the Cascades, snow is all but guaranteed. Above-normal precipitation combined with marginally cooler mountain temperatures points to another busy stretch for ski areas and mountain passes, including Stevens Pass, Snoqualmie Pass, and White Pass. Travel conditions could become hazardous at times.
For everyone else — particularly western and coastal Washington — a rainy Christmas remains the most likely outcome.
Residents should continue monitoring updated forecasts as mid-December approaches, especially for mountain travel impacts and the timing of incoming Pacific storms.
