Richmond, VA – From the Blue Ridge to the state capital, Virginians are wondering what Winter 2025–26 will bring. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary outlook points to equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across Virginia, leaving the season wide open.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 update, a weak La Niña is expected this fall before fading into ENSO-neutral during winter. That shift creates a highly uncertain forecast for the Mid-Atlantic, where storm tracks often decide whether residents see snow, ice, or plain rain.
“Predictability is very low right now,” forecasters noted, warning that short-term patterns like the Arctic Oscillation could swing conditions sharply.
Northern & Western Virginia
- Blue Ridge Mountains, Shenandoah Valley, and higher elevations: More favorable for colder air and accumulating snow. These areas often see stronger snow totals when moisture-rich storms track inland.
- Northern Virginia and D.C. suburbs: Remain highly sensitive to storm paths. A slight shift offshore can mean blizzard conditions, while a closer track often brings cold rain or icy mix.
Historically, weak La Niña winters in this region have produced several disruptive snowstorms, though totals vary widely year to year.
Central Virginia
- Richmond and surrounding areas: Often caught in the “snow–rain line.” Residents here are as likely to face ice storms and freezing rain as they are heavy snow events.
- Central valleys: Could see smaller snow totals compared to western highlands but still face hazards from mixed precipitation.
ENSO-neutral winters in past years have brought both crippling ice storms and significant snowfalls to Central Virginia, underscoring the unpredictability.
Preparing for the Season
The bottom line: Virginia is in a 50/50 winter outlook. Northern and western regions have a higher risk of accumulating snow, while central parts of the state may deal with more mixed precipitation and ice threats.
Meteorologists caution that a warmer-than-average fall may flip abruptly to winter conditions by late November or December, catching drivers and communities unprepared.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, offering more clarity on how storm systems may impact Virginia this season.
