Richmond, Virginia – A mid-February warm-up is expected across Virginia, with temperatures forecast to run 10 to 20 degrees above normal from Feb. 16–20, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day outlook shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures statewide, including Richmond and Virginia Beach. Probabilities for warmer-than-average conditions exceed 60 percent, pointing to a high-confidence departure from typical late-winter weather.
Under normal conditions, mid-February highs across Virginia generally range from the upper 30s to mid-40s, with cooler readings in the mountains and warmer conditions toward the coast. During this period, daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 40s, 50s, and even lower 60s, particularly across central, southern, and coastal portions of the state.
This warming trend is part of a broader weather pattern affecting much of the central and eastern United States. While the most pronounced warmth—highs in the 50s and 60s—is expected across parts of the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic is still likely to experience a noticeable but temporary break from winter cold, often referred to as a “spring tease.”
Precipitation outlooks indicate near to slightly above-normal rainfall potential across Virginia during this timeframe. Combined with rising temperatures, melting snow in the Appalachian region and periodic rain could lead to localized ponding, river rises, and minor flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Forecasters emphasize that this outlook reflects probabilistic climate guidance, not a day-to-day forecast. Colder air can still return later in February, and residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts for updated details.
For commuters, students, and outdoor workers, the warmer stretch may provide brief relief from winter weather, though rapidly changing conditions remain possible.
