Richmond, Virginia – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring near-normal winter precipitation across Virginia, with equal chances of rain and snow rather than a dominant winter weather signal.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Virginia is currently placed in an “equal chances” category for February precipitation type. This designation indicates no statistically significant signal favoring either above-normal snowfall or rain-dominant systems compared to long-term February averages.
Equal chances outlooks reflect uncertainty in storm tracks and temperature patterns. For Virginia, this suggests February 2026 could feature a wide range of winter weather outcomes, including rain events, snowstorms, and periods of mixed precipitation depending on timing, elevation, and cold-air availability.
Higher elevations in western and southwestern Virginia may still see accumulating snow during colder systems, while central and eastern portions of the state—including the Interstate 95 corridor and Tidewater region—are more likely to experience rain or rain-snow mix during milder periods, especially with coastal storm tracks.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across the Mid-Atlantic. This temperature profile supports alternating cold and mild periods, increasing the likelihood that small temperature shifts will determine precipitation type during individual systems.
Surrounding regions including Maryland, the Carolinas, West Virginia, and eastern Kentucky also show neutral precipitation signals, reinforcing uncertainty in how consistently winter patterns will favor snow versus rain across Virginia.
Commuters, students, military installations, and freight operators across Virginia are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when shorter-range outlooks will better clarify storm timing and precipitation type.
