Montpelier, VT – With ski season and winter travel on the horizon, Vermonters are asking: will the Green Mountain State get buried in snow this winter—or see another mixed season? The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary Winter 2025–26 outlook leaves the answer wide open, showing equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across Vermont.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 update, a weak La Niña is expected to form this fall, followed by ENSO-neutral conditions this winter. This pattern often makes long-range forecasting difficult and increases the influence of short-term weather drivers.
“Predictability is very low this year,” forecasters explained, pointing to ‘wild card’ atmospheric factors such as the Arctic Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation. These short-term shifts can steer storms into (or away from) New England with little notice, meaning Vermonters could face anything from weeks of calm to sudden heavy snow events.
What It Means for Vermont
Historically, weak La Niña and ENSO-neutral winters have delivered colder-than-average conditions in northern New England, with snow totals ranging widely year-to-year. For Vermont, this means the possibility of classic nor’easters dropping feet of snow—but also the risk of winters that fall closer to normal.
Recent winters have shown how variable outcomes can be. While some years bring bumper ski seasons and tough commutes, others produce leaner snowfall totals despite early warnings of snowier conditions.
Preparing for the Unknown
For residents, the key message is preparation. Vermont remains firmly in a 50/50 zone of snow risk, where the odds of a blizzard season or a milder one are nearly equal. What is certain: short-term weather swings will play an outsized role in determining the severity of winter across the state.
As of now, fall is trending warmer than average, suggesting a potential sharp shift once winter sets in. Ski resorts, commuters, and travelers should be ready for possible early-season snow bursts—or abrupt storms later in the season.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be issued October 16, which may provide more specific guidance for Vermont.
