Burlington, Vermont – A broad warming signal is taking shape for Vermont heading into early March, increasing the probability that winter’s harshest air loosens its grip during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 timeframe.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Vermont has a 33% to 50% chance of above-normal temperatures during the Week 3-4 outlook period. That signal covers the entire state, from the Champlain Valley to the Northeast Kingdom, and aligns with a larger-scale warm pattern stretching across much of the eastern United States.
This extended-range guidance favors more seasonable to slightly milder conditions compared to late-February averages. While brief cold snaps remain possible, long-range indicators suggest fewer prolonged Arctic intrusions impacting major corridors such as Interstate 89 and Interstate 91.
Precipitation probabilities during the same period lean near normal for Vermont. No dominant wet or dry pattern stands out at this time, meaning typical late-winter systems remain possible without a strong signal for excessive snowfall or drought development.
Communities including Burlington, Montpelier, Rutland and St. Johnsbury fall within this broader warming trend. The outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric patterns rather than specific storm timing or day-to-day details.
Additional updates will refine the temperature and precipitation outlook as the late-February to mid-March window approaches and shorter-range data provides clearer guidance.
