Salt Lake City, UT – Skiers, commuters, and residents across Utah are waiting to see if this winter will be packed with snow or lean toward mild conditions. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary outlook for Winter 2025–26 offers no strong signal, showing equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures statewide.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 report, a weak La Niña is expected this fall before fading into ENSO-neutral conditions during winter. That shift typically creates volatile outcomes across the Intermountain West, where elevation and storm track dictate whether snowpack builds or storm activity shifts north or south.
“Predictability is very low right now,” forecasters explained, noting that short-term drivers like the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific storm tracks could sharply swing Utah’s winter between heavy snow events and dry stretches.
What It Means for Utah
- Wasatch Range & Ski Country (Park City, Alta, Snowbird): These areas remain the most likely to see consistent snow, with ENSO-neutral winters historically capable of producing big powder seasons.
- Northern Utah (Ogden, Logan): More prone to lake-effect snow from the Great Salt Lake, which can pile up totals even in otherwise average years.
- Central & Southern Utah (Provo, St. George, Moab): Less consistent, with southern valleys often seeing more rain or dry spells, though occasional winter storms can still bring impactful snow.
ENSO-neutral winters have historically produced both blockbuster snowpacks and leaner ski seasons in Utah, underscoring the uncertainty for 2025–26.
Preparing for the Season
The bottom line: Utah is in a 50/50 snow-risk zone heading into Winter 2025–26. While there’s no guarantee of a record powder year, the risk of heavy snowstorms, blizzards in the mountains, and sudden travel disruptions remains significant.
Meteorologists also warn that a warmer-than-normal fall could flip quickly into stormy December weather, bringing an abrupt start to the ski season and early travel challenges.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, which may provide sharper guidance for Utah’s winter storm potential.
