Upstate New York November Weather: Windy Midweek, Possible Snowflakes by Weekend

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Buffalo, NY – The first true taste of early winter may be arriving in western New York. As the sun rises over Lake Erie, brisk air meets choppy gray water, and the region prepares for a powerful wind event that could push gusts near 55 mph by midweek.

According to the National Weather Service in Buffalo, a deepening low-pressure system tracking across Ontario will stir strong west-to-southwest winds Wednesday morning through late evening. Wind gusts from 50 to 55 mph are likely along the Lake Erie shoreline, with 40 mph gusts extending inland across the Niagara Frontier and Genesee Valley. Residents should secure outdoor items and prepare for possible power outages as trees and power lines may be stressed by the gusty conditions.

Wednesday’s system also brings steady rain and falling temperatures through the day. Highs near 56°F early will drop into the 30s by Wednesday night, with lingering showers possibly mixing with the first snowflakes of the season in higher elevations southeast of the city. Thursday clears briefly before another system moves in Friday, spreading widespread rain and lake-effect showers into the weekend.

By Saturday and Sunday, Buffalo faces highs in the upper 40s with brisk west winds — a sharp reminder that the winter transition is underway. Long-range models hint at colder air spilling across the Great Lakes mid-month, possibly setting up the region’s first measurable lake-effect snow before Thanksgiving.

For now, New Yorkers should expect a wild weather swing — sunshine today, wind Wednesday, and the first whispers of winter by week’s end.