Minneapolis, MN – Residents across the Upper Midwest can expect a warmer-than-normal start to October, though National Weather Service outlooks suggest overnight frost and freeze risks may return later in the month.
According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, the 6–10 day and 8–14 day forecasts show above-average temperatures across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and much of the surrounding region. The strongest probabilities for warmth extend from October 2–10, with some areas carrying a 70% or greater chance of above-normal conditions.
Precipitation trends remain mixed. Forecasters project drier-than-normal conditions across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into early October, while parts of the Plains and Southeast lean toward wetter weather. For Minnesota and Wisconsin, precipitation chances are near to below normal, which could reduce short-term storm activity.
While the first half of October favors continued warmth, meteorologists caution that colder air intrusions become increasingly likely as the month progresses. The NWS notes that overnight frost and freeze alerts, which have already been issued in parts of the region this September, could return as colder patterns set up later in October.
For now, residents can expect unseasonably warm afternoons heading into the second week of the month, but should remain prepared for rapid shifts toward colder nights as fall deepens.
