Minneapolis, MN – The Upper Midwest is heading into one of the most winter-ready patterns in the country for the Thanksgiving travel period, as new federal outlooks show a 40–50% or higher chance of above-normal precipitation paired with reliable cold air from November 23 through November 29. This combination raises the likelihood of widespread snow, mixed precipitation, and significant travel impacts across the region.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 8–14 Day Outlook, the strongest snow signal nationwide is centered over Minnesota, Wisconsin, the Dakotas, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. These areas will be positioned beneath a deepening storm corridor and north of the jet stream, placing them firmly on the cold side of multiple incoming systems.
The Dakotas, including Fargo, Bismarck, Minot, Sioux Falls, and Rapid City, may see several rounds of light to moderate snow depending on timing. Cold air locked in across the northern Plains increases the odds of accumulating snowfall along I-29 and I-94.
Minnesota and Wisconsin hold an equally strong signal. Minneapolis–St. Paul, Duluth, Eau Claire, Green Bay, Madison, and Wausau are positioned for repeated chances of snow or mixed precipitation. Even modest disturbances at this time of year can generate impactful travel conditions, especially early in the morning and late at night.
In the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, including Marquette, Houghton, and Ironwood, both synoptic snow and lake enhancement are possible. The U.P. sits directly in the moisture plume, and colder air may trigger lake-effect bursts that could reduce visibility along long stretches of US-41 and M-28.
Farther south, northern Iowa and northern Illinois—including Des Moines’ northern suburbs, Mason City, Rockford, and the Illinois–Wisconsin border region—remain in the elevated risk zone. These areas may see a mix shifting to snow depending on storm progression.
Holiday traffic across I-90, I-94, I-35, and I-29 may be significantly affected, with airport disruptions possible at Minneapolis–St. Paul, Madison, Milwaukee, Fargo, and Rapid City.
More precise storm timing is expected early next week as short-range models begin resolving individual systems.
