Tucson, AZ – Residents across Tucson and southeast Arizona are heading into February with a warmer-than-normal weather pattern expected to dominate much of the month, according to newly released outlooks from the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center.
According to the National Weather Service Tucson office, February temperatures across the region are leaning above normal, with a 40–50% probability of warmer-than-average conditions through the end of the month. This warming signal is strongest across southern Arizona, including Tucson and communities along major travel corridors such as Interstate 10 and Interstate 19.
Precipitation outlooks, however, show far less certainty. Forecasters indicate equal chances for below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal rainfall, suggesting no strong signal for widespread wet storms during February. Portions of southern and southeastern Arizona appear closer to a near-normal precipitation pattern, while areas farther west lean slightly drier.
The February outlook follows a notably warm January in Tucson. The city recorded its 10th warmest January on record and ranked as the 21st wettest, with average temperatures running about 1.7 degrees above normal, according to the NWS monthly climate review. Despite some rainfall events, dry stretches remained common, particularly impacting desert roadways and fire weather conditions.
For commuters, the warmer and potentially drier pattern could mean continued dry driving conditions on highways like I-10 and I-19, though officials caution that brief storm systems can still develop with limited notice.
Forecasters stress that monthly outlooks reflect probabilities, not guarantees. Daily forecasts and short-term weather alerts remain the best guide for travel planning, outdoor activities, and water use decisions.
Residents are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February progresses, especially as temperature swings and isolated rain events remain possible.
This article was produced by a journalist and may include AI-assisted input. All content is reviewed for accuracy and fairness.
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