Texas Weather Outlook: Showers Return to Houston and Dallas Monday — What to Expect Through the 4th of July

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Houston, TX – Scattered thunderstorms are expected to sweep into Houston and Dallas by early Monday afternoon, triggering summer weather alerts for much of Texas. Drivers in both cities should plan for slowdowns after 1 p.m., with the potential for brief heavy downpours and reduced visibility along major roadways like I-45 and I-30.

According to the National Weather Service, Houston faces a 60% chance of thunderstorms after 1 p.m. Monday, with widespread haze also expected earlier in the day. Dallas will see slightly lower rain chances — 20% after 1 p.m. — but with high heat and humidity, any storms that form could produce brief gusty winds. Heat index values in Dallas could reach 103°, making outdoor work risky during peak afternoon hours.

Houston Outlook:
Expect highs near 92°F Monday with haze and storm chances rising in the afternoon. Showers may linger into the evening. South winds 5 to 10 mph will offer little relief from the muggy air.

Dallas Forecast:
Hot and humid with a high near 98°F Monday. Storm chances remain low, but any thunderstorm could disrupt outdoor plans or commutes. Use caution if traveling in the late afternoon.


📅 Five-Day Forecast: June 30–July 4

  • Monday:
    Houston: 92°F, afternoon storms
    Dallas: 98°F, heat index 103°, isolated storms
  • Tuesday:
    Houston: 94°F, 20% chance of afternoon storms
    Dallas: 97°F, 20% chance of PM storms
  • Wednesday:
    Houston: 96°F, PM storm chance
    Dallas: 98°F, slight chance of storms
  • Thursday:
    Houston: 92°F, mostly cloudy
    Dallas: 95°F, sunny
  • 🌟 4th of July (Friday):
    Houston: 91°F, PM storm chance
    Dallas: 94°F, mostly sunny and hot

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