Houston, TX — As Christmas approaches and Texans look ahead to the New Year, weather patterns are aligning in a way that could bring near-record warmth to much of the Lone Star State as 2026 begins. Forecast guidance for the December 27 through January 2 period shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures, with southeast Texas firmly in the warm zone.
According to the latest outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Texas sits beneath a broad ridge of high pressure expected to dominate the central and southern United States late next week. This setup favors persistent southerly flow, allowing mild Gulf air to surge northward and limiting the chance for sustained cold fronts.
In Houston, where average late-December highs typically hover in the lower 60s, daytime temperatures could climb into the upper 60s to mid-70s around New Year’s. If sunshine is abundant, daily high-temperature records may be challenged, particularly on December 30 and 31. Overnight lows are also expected to remain well above average, reducing the likelihood of frost or freezes across the metro area.
The unseasonable warmth may come with trade-offs. Fog could become more frequent during the overnight and morning hours, and allergy concerns may linger longer than usual for late December. Energy demand for heating is likely to remain below seasonal norms, especially across coastal and southern Texas.
Looking beyond New Year’s Day, the warmth does not appear fleeting. The January 3–16, 2026 temperature outlook continues to favor above-normal temperatures across most of Texas, suggesting that winter cold may struggle to establish itself well into the first half of January.
Overall, Texas appears set to start 2026 on an unusually warm note, reinforcing a broader national trend toward late-December and early-January warmth across much of the country.
