Houston, Texas – A drier late-winter pattern is expected to take shape across Texas heading into early March, increasing the probability that rainfall totals trend below seasonal averages during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 timeframe.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, much of Texas carries a 40% to 50% probability of below-normal precipitation in the Week 3-4 outlook. The drier signal spans the Interstate 35 corridor from Dallas-Fort Worth through Austin to San Antonio, west along Interstate 20 toward Midland and Odessa, and south along Interstate 37 toward Corpus Christi.
This extended-range guidance favors a suppressed storm track across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, limiting the frequency of widespread rain-producing systems compared to late-February norms. While isolated systems remain possible, the broader atmospheric setup suggests fewer organized, soaking rainfall events statewide.
Temperatures during the same period lean near to slightly above average across much of Texas, supporting a gradual seasonal transition without prolonged cold-driven precipitation episodes.
Communities including Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, El Paso and Corpus Christi fall within this drier signal. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific storm timing or daily rainfall totals.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March window approaches and shorter-range guidance provides greater clarity on any developing systems.
