Houston, TX – Texas is heading into the December 13–26 holiday stretch with a warm and wet pattern that effectively wipes out the possibility of a white Christmas for most of the state, according to new NOAA long-range outlooks. While rain will still be on the table, temperatures across Texas are projected to sit far too high to support snow for the vast majority of residents.
NOAA places nearly the entire state — from the Panhandle through Central Texas to the Gulf Coast — inside a large “Above Normal” temperature zone for the second half of December. This setup makes winter weather extremely unlikely, even in locations that historically see occasional holiday cold snaps, such as Amarillo, Lubbock, and the Red River region.
Precipitation tells a similar story. Much of eastern and southern Texas falls into a “Near Normal to Above Normal” precipitation pattern, meaning the Gulf of Mexico may feed moisture into a few passing systems. However, with temperatures well above freezing statewide, any precipitation will fall as rain — occasionally heavy in spots.
According to NOAA meteorologists, Texas would need a strongly anomalous Arctic front to arrive at the exact moment a storm system passes overhead to produce Christmas snow. This year, no such pattern is present. Instead, Texas will experience a classic warm December setup featuring:
– Gulf moisture
– Mild to warm temperatures
– A few storm systems bringing rain but no winter weather
The only area with a very slight chance of seeing a wintry mix would be far northern parts of the Panhandle — but even there, the warm temperature outlook makes the scenario extremely unlikely.
The December 18–24 window, typically an active period for national weather, is projected to bring mild and occasionally rainy conditions for much of Texas. Holiday travelers should expect wet roads rather than icy ones, with typical late-year thunderstorms possible along the Gulf Coast.
Residents should monitor updated forecasts as December approaches, particularly for rainfall timing — but snow, this year, is off the table.
